Evaluating the potential impact of transmission constraints on the operation of a competitive electricity market in Illinois.

Despite the current adequacy of the generation and transmission system in Illinois, there is concern that the uncertainties of electricity restructuring warrant a more detailed analysis to determine if there might be pitfalls that have not been identified under current conditions. The problems experienced elsewhere in the country emphasize the need for an evaluation of how Illinois might fare under a restructured electricity market. The Illinois Commerce Commission (ICC) commissioned this study to be undertaken as a joint effort by the University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign and Argonne National Laboratory to evaluate the Illinois situation in the 2007 period when restructuring is scheduled to be fully implemented in the State. The purpose of this study is to make an initial determination if the transmission system in Illinois and the surrounding region would be able to support a competitive electricity market, would allow for effective competition to keep prices in check, and would allow for new market participants to effectively compete for market share. The study seeks to identify conditions that could reasonably be expected to occur that would enable a company to exercise market power in one or more portions of the State and thereby create undue pressure on the prices charged to customers and/or inhibit new market participants from entering the market. The term 'market power' has many different definitions, and there is no universal agreement on how to measure it. For the purposes of this study, the term is defined as the ability to raise prices and increase profitability by unilateral action. A more complete definition is provided later. With this definition, the central question of this analysis becomes: 'Can a company, acting on its own, raise electricity prices and increase its profits?' It should be noted that the intent of the study is not to predict whether or not such market power would be exercised by any company. Rather, it is designed to determine if a set of reasonably expected conditions could allow any company to do so. It should also be emphasized that this study is not intended to be a comprehensive evaluation of the electric power system in the State. Rather, it is intended to identify some issues that may impact the effective functioning of a competitive market.