Evaluation of new generation entry in a deregulated electricity market

This paper proposed a new evaluation method to investigate new generation entry in deregulated markets. This method can evaluate the expected net revenue of the new generator when the unit is committed into a trading region in the Australia electricity market. The cumulated annual price and load duration curve are used, together with a randomly distributed bid price profile to determine the loading priority of the candidate unit. The approximated bids stacking priority of the generator enables the computation of the revenue for the new unit. Furthermore, stochastic generator conditions such as outages are simulated with Monte Carlo simulation. Value at Risk and Conditional Value at Risk are two of the risk assessment tools used to evaluate the risks associated with the commitment of the candidate units. The simulated and historical price data for the trading region of New South Wales (NSW) in the National Electricity Market (NEM) of Australia are used in this study.