Evaluation of Selected USDA WAOB and NASS Forecasts and Estimates in Corn and Soybeans

The United States Department of Agriculture (USDA) has a number of agencies that are involved in collecting, analyzing, forecasting, and disseminating information about the production and consumption of the corn and soybean crops (Spilka, 1983; Vogel and Bange, 1999; Lusk, 2013). Market participants rely heavily on estimates and forecasts provided by these agencies in order to form price expectations and to make business decisions. In spite of on-going efforts to maintain the quality of information provided and the transparency of the methodology used, misunderstanding, concerns, or complaints about the information provided periodically arise (e.g., USDA/ESRP, 1985; Good and Irwin, 2011). More recently (since 2006) those concerns have centered on the accuracy of the quarterly estimates of corn inventories and to a lesser extent on the methodology and accuracy of early season yield forecasts (e.g., Polansek, 2010; Pleven and McGinty, 2011). It is in that context that this review of USDA forecasts and estimates for corn and soybeans was conducted.