Export barriers and business confidence: a quasi-longitudinal examination

Purpose – The purpose of this paper is to examine the influence of export barriers at two different points in time, 1995 ( t 0 ) and 2010 ( t 1 ), respectively. Using “confidence” as a surrogate for affect, the study proposes an inverse relationship between affect and export barrier intensity with the influence of export barriers increasing as exporter confidence subsides. Design/methodology/approach – The study draws two random probabilistic samples (1995/2010) of New Zealand’s SME exporters, from the same working population, using an identical survey instrument. Preliminary analysis combines exploratory factor analysis and confirmatory factor analysis techniques. The research proposition is tested using binary logistic regression. Findings – The results found that the influence of export barriers changes substantially across time. There was support for the proposition in that the 2010 sample of exporters were two to nine times more likely to consider export barriers influential than the 1995 group. Such evidence was particularly strong in the context of logistics and distribution factors, internal resource constraints, trade-related barriers, home market factors and currency and payments obstacles. Practical implications – This research suggests managerial evaluation of the prevailing business atmosphere, as captured by exporter’s confidence, can influence perception of export barriers. Specifically, barriers tend to be evaluated as influential when there is a sense of pessimism within the export sector. Thus over time export barrier influence can be traced to the manager’s evaluation of export prospects as opposed to the frequently researched organizational and internationalization variables. Originality/value – This is the first study to use theory to predict and empirically test the change in export barrier influence across time. While the majority of export barrier research adopts the cognitive or “objective-verifiable” view, the study supports the contention that export barrier influence can also be understood in the context of the emotive or “subjective-moot” perspective. Additionally, export managers should adopt long-term orientation towards exports while policymakers are encouraged (contrary to mainstream research) to move from targeted export support programs to inclusive or mass market approaches.