Factories and Fertility: The Impact of Manufacturing Growth on Son Preference

This paper investigates the unintended gendered effects of manufacturing growth in India, focusing on son preference. For identification, I leverage a place-based tax exemption policy under the Finance Act of 1994, which incentivized manufacturing sector investments in backward districts, and employ a regression discontinuity design using three nationally representative datasets. Results show increases in women's stated son preference, likelihood of having at least one son, and son-to-daughter ratios. Higher son preference is mediated through male-biased employment gains in the manufacturing sector, stagnant female employment, reinforced patriarchal gender norms, and dowry inflation. The findings underscore that not all drivers of structural transformation benefit women, as gender norms shape who gains from growth. By documenting these spillovers, this study broadens the understanding of manufacturing policies and their social costs.