Financial systems and economic crises : the main determinants of financial instability

"This book examines the main causes of financial instability and highlights that, with the exception of wars and pandemics, the financial system is the source of the crisis, not just a means of spreading it, as most mainstream experts believe. The innovative parts of this book provide academics and policymakers with important and practical knowledge based on the following findings: because negative shifts in the financial system precede recessions, financial indicators can indicate a crisis considerably sooner than real variables; the development of a recession forecasting model that can announce the onset of the crisis a month in advance. When the economy's sensitivity to the financial system is reduced, there will be only modest negative economic growth and no true recessions"--