First in first win : evidence on unfairness of round-robin tournaments in mega-events

The order of actions in contests may have a significant effect on performance. In this study we examine the role of schedule in round-robin tournaments with sequential games between three and four contestants. Our propensity-score matching estimation, based on soccer FIFA World Cups, UEFA European Championships and Olympic wrestling events, reveals that there is a substantial advantage to the contestant who competes in the first and third matches, which is in line with game-theoretical predictions. Our finding implies that the round-robin structure with sequential games is endogenously unfair, since it systematically favours one of the contestants.