FIRST PASSAGE TIMES FOR RISK-TRACKING PROXIES

This paper determines first passage time distributions with a two-fold emphasis. The focus is first set on interest rate randomness. It derives a closed-form solution in the case of moving boundaries, indexed on risk-free bonds, and where interest rates obey mean-reverting processes and underlyings follow lognormal diffusion processes. It turns next to the underlyings, which may not be exchange-traded and whose dynamics obey jump-diffusion processes. It builds an equilibrium valuation framework and determines the rational-expectations equilibrium price of digital options. As those underlyings may be risk-tracking indices, the article can be applied to pricing insurance-linked securities, such as catastrophe bonds.