Fiscal Forecasting: the Track Record of the IMF, OECD, and EC

We analyse the relative performance of the IMF, OECD and EC in forecasting the government deficit, as a ratio to DGP, for the G7 countries. Interesting differences across countries emerge, sometimes supporting the hypothesis of an asymmetric loss function (i.e., of a preference for underprediction or overprediction), and potential benefits from forecast pooling.

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Year of publication:	1999-08
Authors:	Artis, Michael J ; Marcellino, Massimiliano
Institutions:	C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers
Subject:	fiscal forecasting \| forecast encompassing

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Extent:	application/pdf
Series:	CEPR Discussion Papers.
Type of publication:	Book / Working Paper
Notes:	Number 2206
Classification:	C53 - Forecasting and Other Model Applications ; E17 - Forecasting and Simulation ; H62 - Deficit; Surplus
Source:	RePEc - Research Papers in Economics

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005661466