Forecasting Private Consumption Structure in European Countries: SKIM Model Results and Comparison with other Approaches

Our analysis was performed with data from 10 EEC countries in the period 1962-86 and is devoted to the changes in the structure of private consumption with respect to eight commodity groups. We began with eleven different approaches from which we chose four. In turn we then compared them with the SKIM model. A total of 880 equations have been estimated during the period 1962-84 and from that source of information we evaluated the forecasting accuracy for the period 1984-86. The main conclusion is that the Skim model, presented in this paper, generally performs better than the other models considered (Rotterdam, loglinear, LES, Deaton and Muellbauer, etc.) <p> Una versión actualizada de este documento está disponible gratuitamente en la serie de documentos "Economic Development" de la Asociación Euroamericana de Estudios de Desarrollo Económico, con el número 54. http://www.usc.es/economet/aea.htm <p> An updated version of this paper is downloadable free in the series "Economic Development" edited by the Euro-American Association of Economic Development Studies, with the number 54. http://www.usc.es/economet/eaa.htm