• Abstract
  • Non-technical summary
  • 1 Introduction
  • 2 Data and forecasting models
  • 2.1 Data
  • 2.2 Forecasting models
  • 3 Empirical results
  • 3.1 Forecasting performance comparison
  • 3.2 Direct vs. bottom-up approaches
  • 3.3 Direct, top-down and bottom-up
  • 4 Conclusions
  • References
  • Tables and fi gures
  • Appendix
  • European Central Bank Working Paper Series