Four decades of business scenarios: what can experience teach?

Purpose – The author, a veteran futurist, aims to trace the history of the scenario process, starting with those developed by the Shell team that anticipated an OPEC manipulation of oil supplies and prices that occurred in 1973. Largely on the basis of the Shell scenario's brilliant insight, the methodology initially seemed to offer organizations a chance to bet on the future before it happened. Design/methodology/approach – The paper describes how the best practices in the scenario process identified in this historical review can be adopted by current leaders. Findings – The paper reveals that, in cases where the scenarios have effectively influenced corporate decision making, it was because the scenario team stayed together to execute the foresights they reached in the scenario process.” Practical implications – Scenarios encourage strategic thinking about long‐term futures and potential discontinuities in a world that obsesses about the short‐term. Originality/value – The paper concludes that scenarios, to be most effective, demand a rigor that consumes time and resources. They require leaders to open conduits to information, promote group interactions, encourage disciplined imagination and demand persistent follow‐through.