Fraud and complexity theory : moving beyond the fraud triangle towards a new theoretical framework

Fraud research has long been dominated by micro-level theories-most notably the fraud triangle-that focus on individual motivation while neglecting the wider systems that shape and sustain fraudulent behaviour. This paper introduces a conceptual framework that bridges that gap by integrating established offender-based theories with a novel macro-level understanding of fraud as an emergent property of a complex adaptive system. It develops and restructures Fraud Field Theory to place opportunities-the points of interaction between threat and safeguard fields-at the centre of analysis. Drawing on complexity theory, systems thinking, and critical realism, the study explores how feedback, adaptation, and layered causal mechanisms connect individual actions with collective outcomes. The argument is conceptual rather than empirical: causal loop diagrams are used as heuristic devices to illustrate how interactions within and across systems may generate emergent patterns of fraud. The revised framework is then located within a critical realist ontology that distinguishes between empirical events, actual but unobserved processes, and the deeper generative mechanisms that condition them. This synthesis demonstrates how micro-level offender logics can be interpreted within broader organisational, technological, and societal contexts. If fraud stems from the adaptive dynamics of these interconnected systems rather than from isolated acts of wrongdoing, the efficacy of deterrence-focused policies will remain limited. A new policy frame is needed, one that treats fraud control as a process of continual system adjustment, strengthening resilience, mapping systems, and adapting interventions as the environment continually evolves.