From frontline to central regional node: Turkey's recalibration of its regional strategy in Iraq

Once viewed by Ankara primarily as a fragmented security frontier, Iraq now sits at the centre of its regional strategy. This recalibration is shaped by shifting regional dynamics in the aftermath of 7 October: the weakening of Iran's influence across multiple fronts, the Gulf states' rising economic and diplomatic weight, and the search for new stabilising axes in the Middle East. Turkey's renewed engagement is not just about countering the Kurdistan Workers Party (PKK) - it signals broader regional aspirations that combines security cooperation with Baghdad and Erbil, a fragile domestic peace process in Turkey, and a strategic push to embed Iraq within Turkey-Gulf trade and key regional energy infrastructures, including oil pipelines, prospective gas exports, and electricity interconnections. At the heart of this shift is a geoeconomic logic: by investing in shared infrastructure and fostering mutual interdependencies, Ankara seeks to consolidate its regional role. For Europe, the outcome will reverberate beyond Iraq by reshaping connectivity, energy access, and the stability of its south-eastern neighbours.