Fuzzy Cognitive Model of Flows of Receipt of Funds from Investment Projects

The goal of the article is development of methods of building up a fuzzy cognitive model of flows of receipt of funds from realisation of investment projects. In the result of analysis of existing methods and models of assessment of investment projects the article finds out that one of the problems is forecasting benefits expected from them (profit, saving). The article shows that forecasting of outgoing flows of investment projects is characterised with uncertainty and subjectivity of original data, which results in the necessity to use models and methods that use fuzzy logic. The article offers methods of building up a fuzzy cognitive model, the essence of which lie in a transition from linguistic description of the data domain to the cognitive model with further allocation of fuzzy dependencies between the data domain objects (model concepts and which ends with mathematical description of these dependencies. Such an approach allows reduction of the subjective component in assessment of investment projects and making the process of their assessment more transparent. The article also gives an example of realisation of a fuzzy cognitive model for assessment of an investment project of development of the coal mining enterprise, which illustrates a practical application of the methods.