Gas infrastructures and the environment in Eurasia in a dynamics-as-usual scenario

This paper examines the implications of the new dynamics-as-usual IPCC B2 scenario for the viability of international gas transmission lines and the environment in Eurasia. In doing so, it analyses the effects of increasing the number of pipelines, reducing gas extraction costs and stabilising greenhouse gas concentrations. In the B2 scenario, interregional gas transport by pipeline would increase from 150 bcm (billion cubic metres) in 1998 to nearly 900 bcm in 2040 whereas the interregional liquefied natural gas (LNG) trade would decrease over the same period. In addition, connecting the natural gas supply areas in the Former Soviet Union and the Middle East with the demand centres in South and Central Asia would increase global piped gas exports to around 1780 bcm. Reducing extraction costs or stabilising greenhouse gas concentrations would not alter this picture drastically. Although less than under a coal based scenario, carbon emissions would still increase under the B2 scenario, especially when gas extraction costs decrease. Sulphur emissions in Asia would, however, be significantly lower than in a coal-based scenario.