Geothermal Heat Pump Profitability in Energy Services

If geothermal heat pumps (GHPs) are to make a significant mark in the market, we believe that it will be through energy service pricing contracts offered by retailcos. The benefits of GHPs are ideally suited to energy service pricing (ESP) contractual arrangements; however, few retailcos are thoroughly familiar with the benefits of GHPs. Many of the same barriers that have prevented GHPs from reaching their full potential in the current market environment remain in place for retailcos. A lack of awareness, concerns over the actual efficiencies of GHPs, perceptions of extremely high first costs, unknown records for maintenance costs, etc. have all contributed to limited adoption of GHP technology. These same factors are of concern to retailcos as they contemplate long term customer contracts. The central focus of this project was the creation of models, using actual GHP operating data and the experience of seasoned professionals, to simulate the financial performance of GHPs in long-term ESP contracts versus the outcome using alternative equipment. We have chosen two case studies, which may be most indicative of target markets in the competitive marketplace: A new 37,000 square foot office building in Toronto, Ontario; we also modeled a similar building under the weather conditions of Orlando, Florida. An aggregated residential energy services project using the mass conversion of over 4,000 residential units at Ft. Polk, Louisiana. Our method of analyses involved estimating equipment and energy costs for both the base case and the GHP buildings. These costs are input in to a cash flow analysis financial model which calculates an after-tax cost for the base and GHP case. For each case study customers were assumed to receive a 5% savings over their base case utility bill. A sensitivity analysis was then conducted to determine how key variables affect the attractiveness of a GHP investment.