Global Economy Set to Recover in the Industrialised Countries and Accelerate in the Other Country Groups. Medium-term Projections from 2003 to 2008

With interest rates kept low and taxes strongly reduced, monetary and fiscal policies in the USA are expected to remain on an expansive course in 2004. This will strengthen the economic upswing but will also accentuate the disequilibria in the US economy: in 2004, both the budget deficit and the current account deficit are envisaged to increase to at least 5 percent of GDP. For this reason, the USA will pursue a slightly restrictive course after the 2004 election year. Interest rates will probably be raised to 3.0 percent in 2005, and measures to consolidate the budget should dampen final demand, reducing the rate of growth to 2.3 percent by 2006, although the economy should then take an upturn again, and to 3.0 percent in 2008. In the medium run, the USA will thus manage an economic growth of 2.9 percent p.a. for the period of 2003-2008.