Global impact of a protectionist U.S. trade policy : study on behalf of the Bertelsmann Foundation

When President Trump came into office the US administration launched a detailed analysis of American trade relations. It aimed to identify "unfair trade practices" that are supposedly increasingly being used by other countries, and that are economically damaging to America. This study simulates potential protectionist trade policies on the part of the USA using historical data. The results enable a comprehensive analysis of the political debate and, above all, of its meaningfulness. The study illustrates that the USA does actually face economic imbalances, and especially high trade deficits, which are increasingly causing upsets in individual branches within the States. At the same time, however, the study also makes it clear that the solution to such economic challenges does not lie in a protectionist trade policy. On the contrary, such a policy would only exacerbate problems in the long term. The study ends with a policy recommendation for the USA and the functioning, rule-based, multilateral trade system.