Global impacts of oil price reductions and official development assistance : medium-term comparative simulations with alternative global econometric models

Recent economic recovery of the world economy after almost four years of deep recession due to positive factors (favourable outlook of oil prices and the lower interest rates in the USA and other industrial nations). However, negative factors (serious government fiscal debts in most of the industrial nations, the huge accumulated external debts of major non-oil developing countries and a fall in imports and capital outflow from OPEC) tend to keep the world economy from accelerated recovery. The authors analyze the basic mechanism and interrelations of these factors