Handels- und Budgeteffekte der WTO-Agrarverhandlungen in der Doha-Runde: Der revidierte Harbinson-Vorschlag

A great deal of attention is currently being paid to the discussion ofthe reform of global agricultural trade. In this paper, the effects ofthe revised Harbinson paper (March 2003) are analysed with anextensively extended GTAP model. With the help of a base run,projections are implemented in the form of economic developmentsas well as already enacted EU policy reforms and measures (Agenda2000, Mid-Term Review, EU enlargement, EBA agreement) from 1997to 2014. The base run is compared with a scenario simulating theDoha Round of the WTO based on the revised draft of the Harbinsonproposal. The difference between the base run and the model scenarioprovides information on the effects on EU trade and budget.The revised Harbinson paper leads to a particularly negative developmentin the trade balances and production quantities for theagricultural and food sectors of the EU-27, which are supported withhigh import duties, export subsidies and direct payments. Significanteffects could be seen particularly in the cases processed food,beef, fruits and vegetables, other cereals and oils and fats. A decompositionof the total effects of the implementation of theHarbinson paper provides detailed insights in the effects resultingfrom the changes in the complex protection structure of the CAP.The implementation of the Doha Round of the WTO negotiationsleads to a reduction in expenses for agricultural market policy of theCAP, caused especially by the production related reduction in directpayments and the complete dismantling of export subsidies.