HIV/AIDS and the Agricultural Sector: Implications for Policy in Eastern and Southern Africa

This paper draws upon development economics theory, demographic projections, and empirical evidence toconsider the likely consequences of the HIV/AIDS pandemic for the agricultural sector of the hardest-hitcountries of Eastern and Southern Africa. We identify four processes that have been underemphasized inprevious analysis: 1) the momentum of long-term population growth rates; 2) substantial underemploymentin these countries’ informal sectors; 3) steady declines in land-to-person ratios in the smallholder farmingsectors; and 4) effects of food and input marketing reforms on shifts in cropping patterns. The paperconcludes that the conventional wisdom encouraging prioritisation of labour-saving technology or crops hasbeen over-generalised, although labour-saving agricultural technologies may be appropriate for certaintypes of households and regions. The most effective means for agricultural policy to respond to HIV/AIDSwill entail stepping up support for agricultural science and technology development, extension systems, andinput and crop market development to improve the agricultural sector’s potential to raise living standards inhighly affected rural communities. Agricultural productivity growth may also help to overcome poverty-relatedfactors that may interact with the disease to magnify its effects.