Household finance and the welfare state: a case study of the United States, 1980-­2010

The sharp rise in household finance, both in debt and in assets, is one of the striking empirical facts about the US economy of the last two decades. But it is still not clear what caused it. Economists, both mainstream and heterodox, seek an explanation in financial market innovation and liberalization. But it is hard to find systematic evidence for this link. Our paper takes up another line of inquiry. Political economists have started to ask how the restructuring of the welfare state may have affected household finance. We use SVAR analysis to establish whether there is a link between the retrenchment of public social spending and the expansion of tax-­‐incentivised private social spending, on the one hand, and household finance variables on the other. More specifically, we ask whether the transformation of the US welfare state over the last 30 years has affected household finances through the channel of debt, leverage, or asset formation. Our findings suggest that the asset channel is empirically the most likely candidate and we point to some welfare state reforms that can support the operation of this channel since the mid-­‐1990s