How Large is Average Economic Growth? Evidence from a Robust Method

This paper puts forward a method to estimate average economic growth, andits associated confidence bounds, which does not require a formal decision onpotential unit root properties. The method is based on the analysis of eitherdifference-stationary or trend-stationary time series models, implementing the robustbootstrapping procedure advocated in Romano and Wolf (2001). Simulation evidence indicatesthe practical relevance of the method. It is illustrated on quarterly post-war USindustrial production.