Human effects in construction contract price forecasting: experience and experiential learning styles

This paper reports on a fully structured interview survey, using a multi-sectional questionnaire, of experienced construction contract price forecasters. The aim of the research was to investigate the relationship between the accuracy of ‘early-stage’ forecasts and experience (defined in terms of the forecasters' length of service as a forecaster and the number of forecasts prepared), learning styles and approaches-to-learning. The results show that, while the forecasters rated experience very highly, the relationships between their ability to learn from experience, measured in terms of individual learning styles and approaches-to-learning, and the quality of their forecasts were found to be very different from those anticipated. No significant correlations were found between forecasting accuracy and the experience measures used, except for the approaches-to-learning dimensions labelled 'Risk-taking', 'Insecurity' and 'Self-confidence'. The results for the 'Insecurity' and 'Self-confidence' dimensions suggest that balanced forecasters, i.e., those who were neither insecure nor overconfident, produce more consistent forecasts. Similarly, the results for the 'Risk-taking' dimension indicate that high-risk takers tend to underestimate, while those who are more conservative tend to overestimate contract prices.