Identification of strategic industries: A dynamic perspective

Reliable estimates of the economy-wide losses associated with industry closings are generally hard to obtain. In the input-output literature, numerous measures of the social value of industries have been proposed. These measures are mostly based on comparative statics results, whereas the recent upsurge of growth theories suggests a dynamic perspective. In this article “hypothetical extraction” methods are used in a new dynamic input-output growth model. The model also stresses the importance of technological linkages between industries and of international trade performance. The potential power of the dynamic extraction methodology is illustrated by simulation results for a hypothetical economy. Copyright Springer-Verlag Berlin/Heidelberg 2004