IMPACT OF HIV/AIDS ON ECONOMIC GROWTH IN RWANDA

Impact assessment is widely used in the field of socio-economic development. Socioeconomicimpact of HIV/AIDS has taken on similar cross-cutting studies mostly in poverty,gender and environment disciplines by applying various quantitative techniques toolsincluding econometric modelling.An extensive literature review was carried out and reveals, in many cases, a strong socioeconomicimpact of HIV/AIDS on the economic output in the long run.Drawing on existing methodologies, two models are developed: Spectrum Policy modeler hasbeen applied to determine the HIV/AIDS epidemiologic impact. An econometric model thatintegrates the determinants variables of the HIV/AIDS Epidemiology and the Gross DomesticProduct (GDP) and simulates different scenarios which represent a variety of HIV/AIDS levelscorresponding to hypothesised behaviours.This econometric model demonstrates a limited impact of HIV/AIDS on GDP in the context ofextended use of antiretroviral therapy combined with a strong preventive policy which wouldlikely curb the HIV in short term to mid-term.It also highlights the impact of other essential determinant factors on GDP, which are includedin the model that decision-makers should act upon in order to stimulate the economic growth