Impacto da febre aftosa no preço da arroba do boi gordo, recebido pelo produtor no Brasil

The objective of this study was to identify some facts that had influenced the fatcow arroba prices received by producers as well as carrying through estimates of these prices for a period of four months beginning in May 2007. It was used methodology idealized by Box-Jenkins (1976). The results demonstrated that the series in question (01/1996-05/2007) presents a structural breaking in the referring period the January of 2004, fact this that led to the cut of the same, being considered in the analysis the period February 2004 - May 2007, presenting 40 comments. Some events can have influenced the prices of the fatcow arroba in that moment and one that deserves prominence is the fact of that in period two infected areas of aphthous fever in the states of Amazonas and Pará had been detected what it caused the embargo of the exportations for Russia.