IMPACTO SOBRE A POBREZA DOS NOVOS PROGRAMAS FEDERAIS DE TRANSFERÊNCIA DE RENDA

This article aims at verifying the potential effect of federal income transfer programs created over the last few years on poverty as measured by the income criterion. The indicators do not reflect actual results; rather, they refer to impact simulations had the programs been applied to their entire target population, considering the rules for each program. The first set of simulations shows the relatively modest effect on poverty indicators of the school-scholarship program, of income transfers made through health clinics and of income paid as compensation for the former bottled-cooking-gas subsidy, all implemented during FHC's government. The simulations of income transfers under the Zero Hunger Program and by the Family Income Program, both created during the Lula's government, show a greater impact than those mentioned above, which was to be expected given the fact that the value of transfers is much higher and the target population much larger. Nevertheless, these programs would face greater difficulties in targeting the right group of beneficiaries and financing itself.