Impacts of the Euro-Tunisian agreements of free exchange: evaluation by a Computable General Equilibrium Model in 1996

Until nowadays, the South-Mediterranean countries have focused on their strategic choice which consists in the creation of a Euro-Mediterranean Free Trade Area (FTA). Among the first participants in the constitution of this zone, is Tunisia, which signed an agreement of association with the European Union (EU). Since the signature of this agreement, Tunisia has been interested in improving its internal economic situation through internal reforms to facilitate the application of external reforms. With the coming into force of this agreement, the free euro-Tunisian exchange concerns exclusively industrial products, while the other products (farm produce) are going to be examined in the coming days. The object of this communication is to compare the effects of the free total exchange and the effects of the free industrial exchange between Tunisia and the EU in the Tunisian economy. This problem was estimated by means of a Computable General Equilibrium Model (CGEM). This document is going to be divided in two blocks of simulations. The first concerns total commercial liberalisation, while the second block consists in a partial commercial liberalisation. We notice that a progressive commercial liberalisation applied during a reasonable period remains an effective economic reform for a developing country. Moreover, such a liberalisation is considered as preferable when it is applied to one or to a certain category of product. In other words, free progressive industrial exchange between Tunisia and the EU is considered as a good strategy for the constitution of a Euro-Mediterranean FTA on the horizon 2010.