Implementation of a Technology Impact Forecast Technique on a Civil Tiltrotor

The methodology presented in this paper is concerned with the ability to make informed decisions early in the design time line in order to provide a feasible, viable and robust system to the customer. Increasingly, the issues of affordability, uncertainty in design and technology impact assessment are shaping the modern design environment. Current methodologies and techniques are not able to properly handle these issues. The research presented here builds on the authors?previous work which described an appropriate probabilistic design environment that allows for design in the presence of uncertainty as well as the infusion and assessment of new technologies. This environment is an essential part of a design methodology referred to as the Technology Identification, Evaluation and Selection (TIES) method. The objective of this research is to provide a comprehensive, structured, and robust methodology for decision making in the early phases of rotorcraft design. In this paper the authors will present a brief summary of the probabilistic design environment and introduce the steps that encompass the TIES methodology. The majority of the paper will be devoted to applying the Technology Impact Forecasting portion of this method to NASA? Short Haul Civil Tiltrotor.