Implications of lifting the ban on the export of Alaskan crude oil: Price and trade impacts

This study addresses the issue of the ban on exports of Alaskan crude oil. At present almost all crude oil production from Alaska must be sold in the United States, i.e., it may not be exported. This study examines the impact, mainly on the West Coast, of eliminating this export restraint. The study concentrates on two time periods. These are 1988, the most recent year for which complete data are available, and 1995, a year in which Alaskan production is projected to be substantially less than at present. This is the Energy Information Administration's (EIA's) second report on this subject. The first was released earlier in 1990. They differ principally in the years for which results are presented and in the models used to generate quantitative results. The first report was limited to 1988. The quantitative results for that year were based on use of a single region model and therefore did not take into account petroleum interactions among all areas of the world. Because of this limitation, quantitative results were limited to Alaskan crude oil prices. All other price and trade flow results were qualitative. In contrast, the present report covers both 1988 and 1995. The quantitative results are generated with use of a more comprehensive model, one which does take into account petroleum interactions among all areas of the world. The model-generated results cover both crude and product prices as well as petroleum trade flows. The quantitative results in the present report therefore supersede those in the first, although both sets are generally consistent.