Implicit interpretation of Indonesian export bans on LME nickel prices : evidence from the announcement effect

Byungkwon Lim, Hyeon Sook Kim and Jaehwan Park

Forecasting of LME (London Metal Exchange) nickel prices remains an interesting topic but lacks consensus. This study aims to fill knowledge gaps by demonstrating the announcement effect of export bans by the Indonesian government. This article focuses on Indonesia because Indonesia produces more than 60% of global nickel ore. We identified the sequence of two episodes in which Indonesian export bans of nickel ore appeared to increase LME nickel prices. The impact of the Indonesian export ban in 2014 is somewhat larger than that of 2019. The shock on the LME nickel market in 2014 was sustained for a while after the ban was implemented. We believe that this is the first export ban that has had unexpected effects within the market.

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Year of publication:	2021
Authors:	Lim, Byungkwon ; Kim, Hyeon Sook ; Park, Jaehwan
Published in:	Risks : open access journal. - Basel : MDPI, ISSN 2227-9091, ZDB-ID 2704357-5. - Vol. 9.2021, 5, Art.-No. 93, p. 1-7
Subject:	announcement effect \| Indonesian export bans \| cumulative forecasting error \| Ankündigungseffekt \| Announcement effect \| Indonesien \| Indonesia \| Export \| Ausfuhrverbot \| Export ban

Type of publication:	Article
Type of publication (narrower categories):	Aufsatz in Zeitschrift ; Article in journal
Language:	English
Other identifiers:	10.3390/risks9050093 [DOI] hdl:10419/258181 [Handle]
Source:	ECONIS - Online Catalogue of the ZBW

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