Improbable circumstances strategic framework

ENGLISH SUMMARY: The research documents the development of a conceptual framework, the improbable circumstances strategic (ICS) framework, which guides organisations in the preparation for improbable circumstances.Four fields include: strategic management, innovation, systems thinking and complexity theories (black swans). The black swan principle was introduced with its applicability to the 2008 economic crisis. The black swan is an event which is retrospective in its predictability, highly improbable and carries extreme impact. There are various principles to cope with black swans which will now play a role in strategic management.Strategic management is studied from a systems thinking perspective which is a school of thought that strategy is a process which an organisation should follow from analysis, synthesis, implementation through to the operation phase. Some tools applicable to the analysis and synthesis phases were studied to give a greater understanding of the current field of strategic management. Innovation is an underlying principle which supports the strategic process.Innovation is a field which is currently not playing a large role in the strategy process. The principles of the innovation life cycle, innovation management and open innovation were studied to support the framework as well as create awareness around the advantages thereof within the field strategy.The dissertation uses aspects of these four fields to form the ICS framework. The framework consists of four phases: the analysis phase; the improbable event creation phase; the fragility analysis phase; and the synthesis phase. The first three phases run parallel with the current analysis phase of strategic management as the ICS framework is not designed to replace the strategic management process, but to add to it. The synthesis phase is where the design of the strategic plan for improbable circumstances takes place. Each phase sets out the inputs, requirements and deliverables needed for the successful implementation of the framework. Some tools for each of the phases are given, but they are given merely as a guideline as different organisations have the infrastructure for different tools. The framework is partially validated by being able to apply various tools to each phase, but the framework’s place in the field of strategy should be validated.The validation is done through interviews with eight industry experts in the four fields of study discussed. The results show a positive response with a call for future study through implementation, a tracking of the framework through this implementation and critical factors that arise from that.