Indicador de confianza empresarial en el sector construcción en México a través de un sistema de inferencia difuso

In Mexico the National Institute of Statistic and Geography (INEGI) publishes a monthly indicator of business confidence (ICE) for various economic sectors using the Monthly Survey of Business Opinion (EMOE). In the present work reference is made only to the construction segment as it is one of the most sensitive sectors for the growth of the economy in Mexico. The official information issued by the INEGI about the ICE for this sector, is the result of the simple arithmetic mean of five qualitative indicators already projected and weighted. When applying the arithmetic mean at the end of the process to obtain an indicator of such importance, gives rise to the classic debate of applying this descriptive statistic in mean qualitative variables in Likert type questions. To overcome this problem, it is proposed to take the labels used in the answer options of the questions used in the EMOE questionnaire, to linguistic variables, where through the methodology of fuzzy inference systems, a Fuzzy Business Confidence Indicator (ICED) is obtained as a result. To validate the proposed system, the new fuzzy confidence indicators were calculated from January 2012 to February 2021 and compared to the official figures issued by the INEGI, obtaining similar results with the advantage that the indicators derived by the system, turned out to be higher or lower in general. What allows this path is to be more sensitive to changes in opinion among entrepreneurs, avoiding centralizing opinions by using the simple arithmetic mean.