Inflation and human capital formation : theory and panel data evidence

Existing monetary growth theories predict either negative or neutral effects from inflation on human capital. In this paper we develop a simple alternative model, which can generate positive effects. Our empirical analysis for 93 countries in 1975-1995 tends to confirm these positive effects. Using recent GMM panel data procedures, we find that rising inflation basically stimulates human capital. A robust negative effect can be observed only at extremely high inflation rates. A representative threshold may be 100%. For inflation rates below 15%, the effect of rising inflation seems insignificant. The latter result can also be rationalized from our model.