Inflation Targeting and Fear of Floating in Brazil, Mexico and South Korea

We present evidence on Fear of Floating (FF) practices before and after the adoption of Inflation Targeting (IT) for three emerging countries that faced important exchange rate crises in the 1990’s (Brazil, Mexico and South Korea). We start using the methodologies proposed by Calvo and Reinhart (2002) and Ball and Reyes (2008), and check the probabilities of observing small monthly exchange rate changes, combined with large movements in policy instruments (international reserves and interest rates), which should indicate some degree of exchange rate targeting. This initial exercise suggests a progress towards greater exchange rate flexibility after IT. We then use a VAR model to analyse the monetary policy response to exchange rate and inflation shocks, and detect a drastic reduction in direct intervention in the foreign exchange market after IT, accompanied by a stronger response to inflation. These findings are consistent with the IT framework, and suggest a reduced role for FF.