Inflationary Implication of Gold Price in Vietnam*

The sustained elevated gold price domestically, hovering persistently above the global market price, underscores the peculiar nature of the gold market in Vietnam and the resiliently strong demand for gold in the local market. In particular, the movements in the price of gold seem to lead a symmetrical trend in the headline inflation since the outbreak of the 2007 global financial crisis. The primary objective of this study is therefore to assess possible inflationary consequence of the gold price movements in Vietnam. Past studies demonstrate that if gold could be viewed as a financial asset, shifts in the gold price should be monitored as one of the determining factors of inflation. Yet, hardly any study has assessed potential inflationary implication of gold in Vietnam, especially during the recent years of volatile and double-digit inflation rates.