Inflationary shocks, economic aggregates and households' green transition : a causal machine-learning analysis using mixed-frequency data

This research note investigates the causal effects of inflationary shocks on household economic indicators, unemployment rates, and other critical labour market indicators for three countries: Germany, Italy and France. These are the three major EU economies and, together, represent nearly half of the EU population. The variables of interest are: unemployment rate, employment rate, part-time employment as a percentage of employment, temporary contracts as a percentage of employment, gross household investment rate, gross household saving rate, and households' consumption expenditure. The research note also analyses the causal effects of inflationary shocks on the take-up of energy-saving housing infrastructure policy (EIP) in Italy, based on the number of requests for the Italian Superbonus 110%.1 It does not provide such detailed analysis for France and Germany, given the lack of publicly available official data on energy-saving policies implemented.