Informing sustainable energy policy in developing countries : an assessment of decarbonization pathways in Colombia using open energy system optimization modelling

Colombia is committed to reducing its greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions by 51 % by 2030 as part of the Paris Agreement, with a further goal of achieving carbon neutrality by 2050. The energy sector accounts for one-third of net GHG emissions in the country; thus, its decarbonization is crucial to accomplish these targets. In this study, we assess plausible decarbonization pathways using an open-source national energy system optimization model (OSeMOSYS). We build three scenarios over 2021-2050 and contrast them in terms of emissions, energy consumption, technology deployment, costs, and benefits. The results show that a decarbonized energy system can reduce carbon intensity by 93 %, energy intensity by 44 %, fossil fuel imports by 90 %, and provide socioeconomic benefits equivalent to 21 % of the Colombia's 2021 GDP. We use these results to recommend milestones and policy actions that can help inform policymakers about cost-effective strategies to achieve a sustainable, efficient, and more resilient energy system by mid-century. Our transparent and systematic methodology provides a tool for long-term energy planning in Colombia which can also be replicated in other developing countries for assessing decarbonization pathways.