Initial Steps in High-Frequency Modeling of China

This paper presents the first step in building a forecasting model of China's GDP. Being constrained by a statistical history that effectively begins in 1993, it uses high frequency data and principal components analysis to construct a single-equation model that generates elasticities and is applied to two-quarter-ahead forecasts. Initial results suggest a gradual deceleration of growth, consistent with Chinese government policy.Business Economics (2005) 40, 11–14; doi:10.2145/20050102