Input-output modeling amidst crisis : tracing natural gas pathways in the Czech Republic during the war-induced energy turmoil

The current geopolitical landscape, exemplified by the Russian invasion of Ukraine, has heightened concerns about energy security. This study delves into the nexus of energy security and natural gas utilization in the Czech Republic, offering a thorough analysis amid these turbulent times. Despite the fact that the environment/energy-extended input-output models have been significantly improved, they still fail to fully capture a sector's role in an economic system characterized as a network of sectors as they primarily analyze sectors as both ends of the supply chain, ignoring a significant role of transmission sectors. We overcome this gap by applying a multidimensional approach to scrutinize the energy supply chain in order to assess the repercussions of heightened natural gas prices post-Russian invasion. Specifically, we combine domestic energy input-output demand and price models to assess the economic impacts under constrained alternative energy scenarios, particularly relevant given the challenges of replacing Russian gas. Additionally, leveraging network analysis techniques -node and edge betweenness centrality-and the hypothetical extraction method are used to identify critically important structural elements within the country's natural gas consumption chain. While the former pinpoints vital transmission sectors based on gas flow, the latter gauges sectoral significance by simulating complete disconnections, without being influenced by the number of times the sector appears in the supply chain path. Last, we develop a complete map of the embodied energy flows. Structural Path Analysis traces intermediate product flows, enabling the quantification of embodied energy across the supply chain and its representation as a tree-like structure. Our findings reveal significant implications of natural gas price fluctuations on key manufacturing industries, notably those engaged in international trade which are vulnerable to energy supply and price disruptions. We emphasize the critical role of sectors providing essential household goods and services, like energy, food, and transportation. Strategic interventions may be necessary to safeguard domestic demand and the competitive edge of vital sectors like automotive. As energy security remains a dynamic and evolving challenge, our research contributes significantly to the ongoing discourse on energy resilience, particularly for countries dependent on energy imports. Despite the fact our study is applied to the energy field, this framework is useful to analyze the footprint of any inputs, including usage of critical materials, environmental inputs, or emissions, which face similar complexities.