Inside the IMF "mea culpa" : a panel analysis on growth forecast errors and Keynesian multipliers in Europe

Emiliano Brancaccio and Fabiana De Cristofaro

The tests carried out by Blanchard and Leigh (2013; IMF, 2012) and Fátas and Summers (2018) are extended here into a panel framework in order to assess the empirical basis of the so-called IMF "mea culpa" regarding the underestimation of Keynesian multipliers during the euro area crisis. The objections put forward by the European Central Bank, the European Commission and other authors against the "underestimation" thesis are tested and refuted. The results support the "mea culpa" and highlight that the underestimation of multipliers can concern both the short and the long term.

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Year of publication:	2020
Authors:	Brancaccio, Emiliano ; De Cristofaro, Fabiana
Published in:	PSL quarterly review. - Roma : [Verlag nicht ermittelbar], ISSN 2037-3643, ZDB-ID 2687037-X. - Vol. 73.2020, 294, p. 225-239
Subject:	GDP forecast errors \| Keynesian multipliers \| panel analysis \| Multiplikator \| Multiplier \| Prognoseverfahren \| Forecasting model \| Panel \| Panel study \| Wirtschaftswachstum \| Economic growth \| Keynesianismus \| Keynesian economics \| Wirtschaftsprognose \| Economic forecast \| Nationaleinkommen \| National income \| Statistischer Fehler \| Statistical error \| EU-Staaten \| EU countries

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Type of publication:	Article
Type of publication (narrower categories):	Aufsatz in Zeitschrift ; Article in journal
Language:	English
Other identifiers:	10.13133/2037-3643_73.294_2 [DOI]
Classification:	E23 - Production ; E27 - Forecasting and Simulation ; E62 - Fiscal Policy; Public Expenditures, Investment, and Finance; Taxation
Source:	ECONIS - Online Catalogue of the ZBW

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