Integrated estimation of commercial sector end-use load shapes and energy use intensities in the PG&E service area

This project represents a unique research effort to address the commercial sector end-use energy forecasting data needs of the Pacific Gas and Electric Company (PG&E) and the California Energy Commission (CEC). The object of the project was to develop an updated set of commercial sector end-use energy use intensity (EUI) data that has been fully reconciled with measured data. The research was conducted in two stages. First, we developed reconciled electricity end-use EUIs and load shapes for each of the 11 building types in the inland and coastal regions of the PG&E service territory using information collected in 1986. Second, we developed procedures to translate these results into a consistent set of commercial sector forecasting model inputs recognizing the separate modeling conventions used by PG&E and CEC. EUIs have been developed for: II commercial building types; up to 10 end uses; up to 3 fuel types; 2 and 5 subservice territory forecasting regions (as specified by the PG&E and CEC forecasting models, respectively); and up to 2 distinct vintages corresponding to the period prior to and immediately following the adoption of the first generation of California building and equipment standards. For the electricity end uses, 36 sets of daily load shapes have been developed representing average weekday, average weekend, and peak weekday electricity use for each month of the year by building type for both the inland and coastal climate zones.