Intensify, diversify, opt-out: testing farmer stated intentions to past and future CAP reform scenarios

A series of studies have explored the future intentions of farm households to reforms of the Common Agricultural Policy (CAP). This paper explores the intentions of Scottish livestock farmers under proposed reforms and, using the path dependency model, estimates the effect of past decisions on determining future intentions. A large representative telephone based survey of livestock farmers was conducted over the Summer of 2013. This yielded a response rate of 1,764 observations from livestock based holdings in Scotland. A multinomial logistic regression was used to estimate the influence of various factors on either increasing or decreasing activity in agricultural and non-agricultural related areas. Whilst hypothesised increases in payment will lead to an intention to increase activity, a reduction in payment, in some cases, also leads to stated increases in activity both in agricultural and non-agricultural enterprises. We find that the most powerful predictors of change are response to past reform, farmer age and the identification of a successor within the farm household. This latter variable is highly significant and may negate concerns over uncertainty within short-term policy planning scenarios. Overall we argue for more appreciation of longer term trajectories of change at the farm level.