International Interactions in Food and Agricultural Policies : The Effect of Alternative Policies

This paper presents a model of longer term interactions in the international markets for cereals, soybeans and meat, and draws policy conclusions for developing countries. The model is comparative static in nature and, largely, partial equilibrium, incorporating constant elasticity demand and supply functions. It is an extension of earlier similar models: commodity interdependence is modelled explicitly and long-run effects, of productivity growth on domestic production and of income growth on demand, are incorporated. Moreover, demand for feed, as derived from livestock production, is separated from food demand. The focus is on policy analysis and on developing countries. The results are somewhat surprising. First, real prices of wheat and coarse grains would continue to fall under liberalisation assumptions. Second, developing countries' agricultural policies emerge as more important (in relation to OECD countries' policies) than expected, and as ...