International trade and individual labour market perspectives: A micro-level analysis of German manufacturing workers

This paper studies the impact of international trade on individual labour market outcomes in the German manufacturing sector for the period 1995-2006. Combining micro-level data from the German Socioeconomic Panel and industry-level trade data from input-output tables, we examine the impacts on (1) job-to-unemployment transitions and (2) annual earnings. The probability of becoming unemployed rises when workers are employed in Trade Sensitive industries and decreases for workers in Trade Gaining industries. Wage effects are statistically significant for three of four trade-exposed groups of industries, but they are relatively small. The personal characteristics of workers seem to exert a substantial effect on employment status and earnings level.