Is the impact of environmental regulations on the global value chains biased towards technological effects or refuge effects?

As an important factor endowment, environmental rules have a non-negligible impact on trade flows and patterns. Regarding the existing two completely different debates, this study uses simultaneous equations and the Spatial Durbin Model (SDM) to assess the interaction and spatial spillover effects of environmental rules and global value chains (GVCs), the aim is to determine whether the impact of environmental rules on GVCs is biased towards "technological effects" or "Refuge effect". The research findings reveal: (1) When the environmental rules are strengthened by 1 %, the forward participation of GVCs in developed countries decreases by 0.2930 % and the backward participation of GVCs increases by 1.4327 %. This reveals that stricter environmental rules result in GVCs participation bias towards the "refuge effect" in developed countries. (2) When environmental rules are strengthened by 5 % and 1 %, respectively, the GVC forward and backward participation of developing countries decreases by 0.0477 % and 0.5113 %, respectively, which means that when the environmental rules become stricter, both the forward and backward participation of GVCs in developing countries are biased towards the "refuge effect". (3) Concerning the spillover effects of environmental regulations on participation in GVCs, stricter environmental regulations in developed countries impede their own forward participation in GVCs but promote their backward participation, with insignificant indirect effects. Additionally, stringent environmental regulations in developing countries impede their own forward participation in GVCs and similarly do not contribute to the enhancement of forward participation in neighboring developing countries. Therefore, this study suggests that developed countries can transfer green technology to developing countries through technology transfer agreements to promote mutual development. Moreover, developing countries actively adjust their industrial structure, increase investment in technology R&D, and cooperate with other countries and regions, which will help countries learn from best practices and coordinate their responses to common environmental challenges.