Is There a Devaluation of Degrees? Unobserved Heterogeneity in Returns to Education and Early Experience

We study how the returns to higher education evolved in France during a period of educational expansion. We study possible changes in the mix of unobservable characteristics of the graduate population. Using a finite mixture model with latent types, we estimate type-specific log-wage, experience accumulation, and education-choice equations. We find that expected real wages declined for higher-education degrees, and that this result is not driven by adverse selection. Returns to education and experience decreased for certain unobserved types but increased for others. The composition of types among Master's graduates suggests improved student selection over time, despite rising graduate numbers.