Leading Indicators Signal a Downturn

In contrast with developments abroad demand and output rose unabated in Austria until end-1990. However, industrial orders have weakened and firms are more sceptical on the business outlook, according to the latest WIFO survey of late January. The Gulf war has obviously played a role. Thus, the early end of the military conflict and continued low oil prices may well lead to a rebound in the investment propensity from now on. Due to lively demand from Germany volume exports rose 13 percent year-on-year in the 4th quarter 1990, industrial output increased by 6½ percent. The current account for the whole of 1990 yielded a surplus of AS 9½ billion (½ percent of GDP), higher than in any year since 1982.